CARTOMANZIA GRATIS NEWS«È una stron…a». Il linguaggio colorito di Bob Baer, ex operativo della Cia, scrittore e fra i più profondi conoscitori delle dinamiche mediorientali non lascia spazio a obiezioni, quasi nemmeno a una seconda domanda. Si riferisce al ruolo dell’Iran.
Perché le sembra improbabile, diciamo cosi?
«Hamas è un movimento sunnita, è anti iraniano per natura. A Gaza ha costruito un micro stato islamico ed è emanazione dei Fratelli Musulmani egiziani. Non è una creazione iraniana come certa propaganda vuol far credere».
Hamas ha fatto un attacco orchestrato, pianificato nei dettagli e assai chirurgico. Non vede mani straniere? O i gruppi di Gaza hanno la forza per farlo?
«La tattica che hanno adoperato è farina del loro sacco, possono avere avuto qualche elemento tecnologico dagli iraniani, magari qualcosa da Hezbollah, ma il blocco su Gaza funziona e quindi ad Hamas non è restato che pensare e agire in proprio, con missili a lunga gittata. Hanno tecnologie migliori di un tempo, una rete di collaboratori e strumenti per stanare l’intelligence israeliana».
Punto dolente, tutti concordi a dire è stato un fiasco epocale. Cosa è mancato?
«In gergo: humint».
Traduzione: uomini sul campo, occhi e orecchie che captano i segnali, gente infiltrata. Giusto?
«Esatto. Non ci sono. Israele si è affidata alla tecnologia, intercetta i telefoni, registra, usa i video, sbircia e penetra nel Web ma da quanto tempo un agente, qualche informatore non è a Gaza? Si è persa la capacità di decodificare la realtà perché la si respira, la si vede. Faccio un esempio».
Prego.
«Gli israeliani hanno fatto un rave party a poche miglia dalla Striscia, sparando musica nelle orecchie di persone che negli anni, isolate, prive di ogni aiuto e contatto, sono diventate sempre più dei radicali zeloti islamici. è un segnale di come gli israeliani abbiano perso il contatto con il nemico per carpirne gli umori,».
Affidarsi all’intelligence elettronica è deleterio?
«Oggi raccogliere informazioni è complicato. Per un operativo della Cia ad esempio essere a Beirut oggi è impossibile senza essere subito individuato da Hezbollah. E come si fa a spiare in Arabia Saudita se non si può andare in moschea? E poi c’è la barriera linguistica, quanti parlano arabo fluentemente? Non basta saper conversare di cose basiche per essere infiltrato. La National Security Agency era piena di finanziamenti durante la guerra in Afghanistan. Eppure il mullah Omar ha vissuto per un paio di anni prima di morire, non essere catturato, vicino a una base Usa. Con queste prospettive come pensa Netanyahu di andare a recuperare gli ostaggi a Gaza se non sanno nemmeno dove si muove il leader Mohammed Deif? Non li troveranno mai se non da morti quando vedranno i loro corpi».
L’operazione di terra è una delle ipotesi che il governo israeliano tiene sul tavolo. La ritiene un’opzione fattibile?
«L’esercito israeliano è fatto di riservisti. Quando ero giornalista ed ero in missione in quelle zone, eravamo scortati da una militare; faceva la ballerina nella vita di tutti i giorni. Quei giorni aveva l’uniforme e indossava le ciabatte. Non è fattibile occupare Gaza, come non lo era occupare l’Afghanistan. Puoi controllare le strade principali, ma dietro l’angolo puoi venire sgozzato.».
Ma come immagina un’operazione di terra?
«Bisogna usare 300 mila riservisti, andranno strada per strada, Hamas attaccherà le pattuglie israeliane e ci sarà un alto numero di civili uccisi. non si entra con un furgone a Gaza senza essere uccisi in cinque minuti».CONTINUA A LEGGERE SU CARTOMANZIA GRATIS
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